What to Expect, Biden's First 90 Days
by Anthony Arnold
February 2021
The parties have ended, the last of the champagne has been finished off, and normal politics has begun. Whatever warm and fuzzy feelings may have been present during the inauguration have probably already dissipated, as various political actors get back to the time honored tradition of jockeying for power and playing political games.
While that paragraph may sound rather depressing to some of you, I certainly didn’t intend for it sound that way. Quite the opposite. The resumption of something approaching normal would be a tremendous victory, not because I have any particular love for the way things “used to be”; or because I’m a fan of the interminable gridlock that has come to define D.C. politics. But, simply because at this exact moment, the alternative to normal politics is something considerably worse.
Normal politics means those of us who love politics can get back to the work of trying to think about what could/should happen, without the interference that made that sort of thing incredibly difficult, during the last four years.
So with that in mind, I want to try to imagine what the first 90 days of President Biden’s time in office might look like. Now, I’ll admit, I’m not a huge fan of prognostication. In general, I believe that those of us who write and think about politics would be well-served, if we assumed we don’t know nearly as much as we believe.
Most predictions you read about politics won’t be true. That’s because not only is politics genuinely difficult to predict, but also because the people involved in politics are often motivated by forces that might escape early detection, and only appear obvious in retrospect, if at all. But, even with that rather large caveat, it’s still worth going through the predictive exercise.
The first few months of this presidency are going to be of much greater importance than normal, due not only to the looming issues that are absolutely going to come up fairly soon, but also due to the scope of the repairs necessary to begin fixing the damage done by the previous administration.
In order for this to make sense, I’m going to break it down into four sections, with each one giving a broad look at what we should expect to see, as it relates to that topic; and at the end, I’ll try to think about the ways in which these first 90 days could shape the next few years. But I’ll say it again, I reserve the right to be wrong about any, and all of this!
Executive Orders
I basically hate executive orders; but like we’ve already seen, there were and may be many. I think that they’re nothing more than a way for Presidents to circumvent the role of Congress when it comes to making laws, and I also believe we would all be better off if they were restricted to things that Congress really didn’t have the capacity upon which to legislate.
So, I expect that what we’ll get instead is the opposite. President Biden made various promises when he was still just a candidate. The Democrat base is diverse enough that pleasing everyone most likely will be a difficult task to pull off; and executive orders are the quickest way to, both, keep a pledge and make people happy.
It doesn’t hurt that they also can provide a President with positive headlines and get the ball rolling on a narrative. The President gets to sign stuff, the Press Secretary gets to immediately begin touting accomplishments, and the media has stuff to report on right away. It’s a win for everyone!
But, what exactly might he issue them about? A whole bunch of things. Already we’ve seen some about masking, civil rights, environmental policies, and immigration. But we’ve also seen ones that have no real impact, such as declaring January 20th, 2021 a “Day of Unity.” Which doesn’t really do anything, but fits nicely within Biden’s larger narrative.
There’s the other question, which is “what will they do”? On an issue such as wearing a mask on Federal Property, the impact is going to be decent, but probably much less than you imagine. If for no other reason than mask usage is generally decent in the sort of urban environments where these offices are located. But, if it helps to encourage people to adopt more consistent mask usage, then I’m all for it.
Other orders, such as one about climate change, won’t have a direct result. While there’s certainly some immediate action ordered, there’s also quite a bit of ordering reviews and studies. Which means that the real action is yet to come, and the order is mostly about publicly announcing priorities.
It isn’t a bad move, but it also doesn’t really move the needle much. Again, that’s the drawback of doing something via ‘orders’ that can be immediately done away with by whomever bats next. Big picture here is that President Biden will probably sign a boatload of Executive Orders, ranging from ones that are merely ornamental, which is normal, all the way to ones that have real impacts on people’s lives, but aren’t a substitute for permanent legislation.
Staffing
Here’s where we might start to see some partisan fireworks, but also where the urgent work of the Presidency begins. The Federal government employs a vast number of people. While the President, thankfully, doesn’t have to fill all of them, he or she does have to fill hundreds of positions that require Senate approval.
If you’re like most people, you only hear about the dozen or so cabinet positions that get the most attention. Which is probably for the best, because those high profile fights tend to bring out the worst in everyone. But, that also means that an obstructionist Senate can do a lot of low-level nonsense that stops a President from getting to work early; which is what we’ve generally seen happening over the last few decades.
You’d expect that to not really happen this time around, since Democrats effectively control the Senate, but there will be disagreements anyway. And I’d be shocked if Republicans didn’t play hardball whenever possible, if for no other reason than making Democrats devote energy to playing defense means less time to try and pass really ambitious stuff, like statehood for D.C. or Puerto Rico. That’s just politics.
Even without obstacles, President Biden has a lot of work to do on this front, which is why I’m listing it this high. Former President Trump left a lot of positions unfilled. In the agencies where he filled positions, there were budget cuts, an atrophying of the Federal muscle, and a general brain drain. So, there are vacant jobs where whoever comes next is starting from zero, and jobs where the department has to be rebuilt before anything else can even be attempted.
And of course, there was essentially no transition or real handoff of power, due to the former President’s insistence that he won the election. That’s also going to increase the difficulty of doing the jobs, but also the urgency of getting the right people in there fast.
It’s a big job. Biden knows it, and he’s going to want to move fast on this one; which is why you’re probably going to see a lot of nominees who are fairly conventional, at least at the top, and who Biden hopes will get through the confirmation process, with as little friction as possible. That may not make people who were hoping for something more ambitious feel better, but if that’s the road he goes down, then I think it’s the correct one.
Pandemic
Maybe you’re wondering why I have this one so far down? It’s not because it isn’t important; but because addressing it is going to partly fall outside the scope of the first 90 days. While I hope to see the country make significant strides forward during this timeframe, we’re going to be dealing with the impacts and consequences of the pandemic for quite some time. A country doesn’t easily recover from the deaths of 400,000 people (and counting) in under a year when it comes to a disaster like this.
Biden is going to do some things when it comes to this crisis. We’ve seen an executive order about mask usage, and we know there’s a plan for a pretty large relief bill, one that he not only repeatedly talked about, but one where he actually gave a prime time address discussing it -- and one where the more progressive wing of his party will be absolutely livid, if he doesn’t toss everything behind trying to pass it.
That bill seems to be the most likely piece of standout legislation that Biden will have early on. It’s also the bill most likely to generate real disagreement. Not only will Republicans be very unified against what is, right now, a $2 trillion dollar price tag, but it’s not even clear if all Democrats are on board.
Something that’s been kind of lost in all of this is that the United States has had a decent financial response to the crisis. Obviously, we’ve failed in other critical ways, but we really have given out quite a bit of money. Has that money been delivered perfectly? Nope. Was the gap between the first and second relief bills too long? Absolutely.
But as of now we’ve spent slightly over $3 trillion dollars on two bills. That’s not chump change, and just because something hasn’t been enough doesn’t mean it’s been nothing.
Senators of both parties start to get worried when numbers get that big. I don’t particularly share their worries about debt and spending, but what I think also doesn’t matter very much here. They get concerned, and they typically start to get trigger-shy when it comes to handing out more money. So, I’d expect some pushback from more moderate Democrats, and a pretty dug-in resistance from Republicans.
What does that mean for the actual legislation itself? I’m not clear. Largely because I don’t know the particulars of either the bill, or the champions of the bill, to predict where they might be willing to cut. This one seems ripe for negotiations and some old fashioned deal making. Whatever passes will need the support of at least a handful of those moderate Democrats, and I’m sure the Biden administration would love to get a few Republicans on board as well. Headlines look better when the bill is bipartisan.
Impeachment
We come to the elephant in the room. There’s still the rather large matter of what the Senate will do about former President Trump. And, this one could be a doozy.
At least some of what I mentioned above is built on the idea of cooperation. Biden has preached unity. The country needs some unity, and the people could really use some early victories to make us all feel a bit better after what’s been a rough start to the year. In ordinary times, that spirit might be enough to give Congress the swift kick it needs to get to work.
But, these aren’t ordinary times. Impeaching former President Donald Trump could easily prove to be the thing that fractures this very fragile moment. Cooperation on things like cabinet appointments or pandemic relief becomes much more difficult to imagine, if the parties also engage in a long and contentious battle over the person who just left office.
Now, we’re going to see exactly how far Republicans will be willing to push the envelope, and if Democrats are willing to compromise in order to prevent them from doing just that.
A long impeachment trial would be bad for everyone, as it would almost certainly slow down Biden’s early agenda, and also expose Republicans to weeks of embarrassment. But, a short one may appear half-hearted if they don’t vote to convict, or unfair even if they do. That’s not a judgment about the President’s actions, but just an acknowledgment of our current political reality.
Impeachment trials are tricky. They come with built in acknowledgement that the person on trial has done something wrong, overpowering any other news, and featuring political actors making arguments that are unhealthy and divisive. During the best of times, impeachments are hard.
We aren’t in the best of times. We’re in a moment where the American people need Washington to start working, right now. A moment where the memory of a riot in D.C. is still fresh. Anything that turns up the heat any more could be dangerous.
Looking a little further
I hinted at it in the last section, but I do think we get some answers fairly quickly to some pressing questions. The Senate has a lot of work to do, the President is anxious to get that work done, and impeachment is going to be a pressure cooker.
If Republicans show themselves to be obstructionists early on, which is what I’m betting on, then expect Democrats to come out swinging after the first few months. After watching much of Obama’s agenda be scuttled by Senator, and former Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, I can’t imagine they’d let the same thing happen, again. This path could also lead to a further increase of our political tensions.
Conversely, Republicans could decide to let Democrats govern, settle for being able to win concessions whenever possible, count on Democrats wanting bipartisan support, and the entire machine could run somewhat smoother. That wouldn’t lead to the most ambitious four years, but it would probably lead to a somewhat better functioning Senate. However, this isn’t the outcome I’d predict.
Either way, though, I think each side shows their hand pretty early on, which means that by this Spring, at the latest, we’ll likely have a pretty clear picture of our common political future and the the what we can expect from President Biden over his first term in office.